Economists say number of SG’s skilled foreign workers may not return to pre-pandemic levels

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Singapore— Singapore may have fewer skilled foreign workers than before, say experts.

Skilled foreign workers may take longer to return to Singapore, and they come back in smaller numbers, than after earlier recessions, the experts add.

CNA reports that economists made these predictions after last week’s release of the Labour Market Report 2020 by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM).

The MOM report showed that the majority of employees laid off last year — when Singapore suffered the biggest drop in employment in over two decades — were foreigners.

In fact, resident employment — the number of working citizens and Singapore permanent residents — has risen to “slightly above pre-COVID levels”, the MOM report said, with 14,900 jobs gained.

On the other hand, non-resident workers lost 181,500 jobs last year.

MOM’s statistics show that while the bulk of the foreign workers who lost their jobs last year were in the construction and manufacturing industries, the number of S Pass holders also declined by 26,000 and EP holders by 16,700.

Commenting on this, Dr Chua Hak Bin, Maybank Kim Eng’s regional co-head of macro research, told CNA that this situation may have far-reaching effects.

“Stricter foreign worker measures and border controls will likely impede the hiring of foreign workers, even for the skilled segment. There is a structural element, not just cyclical, as policies shift towards reducing the reliance on foreign labour.”

Employment for skilled foreign workers has become more stringent over the years. The minimum qualifying salary has been raised for both S Pass holders and EP holders.

Dr Chua added, “Hard-hit sectors like aviation and accommodation probably shed more foreign workers, as wage subsidies for retaining locals were especially generous.”

The issue of firms being cautious with hiring during the pandemic was brought up by Mr Monty Sujanani, country manager of recruitment agency Robert Walters Singapore.

“Even before COVID-19, companies have always been focused on hiring Singaporeans first due to the TAFEP regulations though there is now greater opportunity to support local hires, particularly Singaporeans who have been made redundant or retrenched,” he told CNA.

“At the same time, we have also seen a number of expatriates/foreign professionals moving back home, which has created more opportunities for Singaporeans and PRs.”

However, Mr Irvin Seah, DBS senior economist, told CNA that the jobs that foreigners lost in Singapore don’t automatically go to locals, for reasons such as technology making remote work possible.

But he acknowledged that companies are likely to hire residents who may not be fully skilled for the position they offer, and add training into the mix, something that Mr Sujanani of Robert Walters said is already being done.

“Companies will need to hire based on potential rather than with 100 per cent skills that they need because there is a limited pool of talent and it’s better to provide upskilling opportunities on the job for talent to acquire the skill sets they need. This also doubles up as an attraction and retention strategy. More forward-thinking companies are already starting to do this.”

经济学家说，新加坡的熟练外国工人人数可能不会回到大流行前的水平

新加坡-专家说，新加坡的熟练外国工人可能比以前少。

专家补充说，熟练的外国工人返回新加坡可能需要更长的时间，而且回国的人数要少于早先的衰退。

CNA报告称，在人力部（MOM）上周发布《 2020年劳动力市场报告》后，经济学家做出了这些预测。

MOM的报告显示，去年解雇的大多数员工是外国人，而新加坡在这是近二十年来失业率最大的下降。

MOM的报告称，实际上，居民就业-在职公民和新加坡永久居民的数量-已经上升到“略高于COVID之前的水平”，获得了14,900个工作岗位。

另一方面，非居民工人去年损失了181,500个工作。

MOM的统计数据显示，尽管去年失去工作的大部分外籍工人在建筑和制造业，但S Pass持有者的数量也下降了26,000，EP持有者的数量也下降了16,700。

Maybank Kim Eng宏观研究区域联席负责人Chua Hak Bin博士对此发表评论说，这种情况可能产生深远的影响。

“更严格的外国工人措施和边境管制可能会阻碍外国工人的雇用，即使对于熟练工人来说也是如此。随着政策转向减少对外国劳工的依赖，这是一个结构性的因素，而不仅仅是周期性的。”

多年来，熟练的外国工人的就业变得越来越严格。S通行证持有人和EP通行证持有人的最低合格工资都已提高。

蔡博士补充说：“航空和住宿等重灾区可能裁减更多的外国工人，因为留住当地人的工资补贴特别慷慨。”